Is war imminent?

By now we could understand from Gedab News,  thanks to Awate.com,  that Mr. Issayas had confirmed the war between Eritrea and Ethiopia is imminent. The question is: Why is the war imminent? For what purpose? Who is going to gain from this war?

War is destructive by nature. There is no prospect from war. Yet the world has experienced many wars. The I and the II World Wars are the most remembered in history. So many lives were lost in those wars. In World War II,  20 million lives were lost only from the Russian side.

There are two kinds of wars. These are just and unjust wars. Any war waged against any colonial or dictatorial oppression is just war. While a war waged for the purpose of oppression is unjust war.

The Eritrean people have long experience of wars. Our 30 years of arm struggle was a just war which we waged for our rights. Our people paid high price for this objective, because, the Eritrean people could not realize this through a peaceful means.

After the independence, the Eritrean people expected a peaceful and prosperous lives. The reality was war after war. Leaving the wars waged against Yemen and  the Sudan aside, what was the cause of the war between Ethiopian and Eritrea? It was not a territorial issue, nor was it a border one. It was pure an economic issue. Even the PFDJ authorities believe clearly that it was not a border issue. And the world community knows this exactly too. The war was not a just war. In fact many politicians called it “nonsense” or “savage”  war. Above all the war could have been avoided if the regime in Asmara had the slightest feeling of responsibility towards the people. Even those who were at the highest level of administration at that time, now who are suffering behind prison bars,  admitted this truth. The effect of this war was the loss of tens of thousands of lives from both sides, about a half million Eritreans displaced, about 60, 000 Eritreans  were deported from Ethiopia and billions of dollars material loss from both sides. The fact is, claming a territorial issue through legal means is one thing and trying to gain this through war is another thing.

Do we know  that there are many countries in our world which have border conflicts and these take them many years to be resolved diplomatically?

It is true that Ethiopia first rejected the border commission decision and called it unjust. But later accepted the decision in principle and added technically that there should be dialogue between the two governments. One can not deny here that Ethiopia has won the world opinion by accepting  the decision in principle and many countries believe that there must be a dialogue between the two regimes to make easier in deciding the fates of the people who will be affected by the line of demarcation.

Even, let’s say,  if Ethiopia uses precondition for demarcation, should Eritrea wage another war?

 My fellow Eritreans, I believe every Eritrean wishes and wants to see this border conflict being solved peacefully. Everyone of us wants the border demarcation being completed as soon as possible. The bottom line is, the Eritrean problem yet remains unsolved. Our issue is an internal issue. It is an issue of dictatorship. This regime is not wanted by the people. Nor is he wanted by the world community. Our country is not only ruled by one dictatorial party, but by an autocratic system led by one brain. If that brain is sick the country will be in danger. We have to be able to change our regime.

Contemporary history teaches us how unwanted regimes are changed by popular upraising such as what happened in the former Soviet Union states such as Georgia and Ukraine. Especially it is a good lesson to us what happened in Ecuador yesterday. When the Ecuadorian arm forces declared their stand with the people, ex-president Lucio Gutierrez had no other alternative than to step down and asked asylum  in the Brazilian embassy. The parliament declared its stand with the people which it represents too. This is the people’s army and this is the people’s parliament. Above all,  the arm forces of a nation should not be an instrument of oppression against their own people. Which is the case in our situation. It is amazing. I hear some Eritreans, even within the opposition camp saying: “We will be with our government” (‘ms mengstna’). Which government?  Whom does this government represent? Who elected this regime?

The question is now: Is war imminent?   If it is,  who will start it? Eritrea or Ethiopia? It is repeatedly said that Ethiopia will not start the war. The controversial Badme is in its hand. It is reluctantly busy with its economic development and election. By the way when Ethiopia has had three terms of national elections within  fourteen years, Eritrea has non.  If war is imminent then,  Mr. Issayas will pull the trigger. It seems logic as he admitted in the opening session of the PFDJ Central Office meeting of April 12-13  saying “Eritrea should not wait to take action”.  If he does,  the price the Eritrean people will pay will be high and finally this will be the end of Mr. Issayas’s  political arena.

If it is the same old story ‘weyane metseka’ (“weyane is coming to you”) for the purpose of psychological warfare,  then I have a new story to tell the reader.

I have a 15 years old son. When he was a kind,  we used the phrase ‘buf buf metseka’ ((a sort of) “dog is coming to you”) just to keep him quiet or make him behave properly the way we like him to be. This was our instrument for a long time. Once upon a time we said as usual: “’buf buf metseka’”. Unusually he stood up and said nervously: ”let the buf buf come. I want to face him”. We were shocked and we had never used that tactic any more. And now I am afraid the Eritrean people will say the PFDJ regime:  “let the weyane come in”.

Let peace and justice prevail everywhere

Adhanom Fitiwi.

Comment: fitiwi@planet.nl