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Deadly Habits: Ten Minute Decisions
‘Amel Mis Megnez’
The latest row between the Eritrean government and the United Nations is
yet another illustration of Eritrean government’s tendency to seek
confrontation as a sole means of resolving challenges.
PIA’s order to expel certain members of UNMEE is the diplomatic blunder
equivalent of the 1998 PIA decision to use force in reply to Woyane’s
provocation. These are rash ‘ten minute’ decisions of an unaccountable
leader bent on compounding mistakes.
Although Eritrea may not be entirely at fault for every
confrontation it has engaged in with its neighbors and others in the
past ten years, PIA has chosen to resort to deadly habits to resolve
these challenges.
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In 1995,
Yemen began intentionally settling its citizens on Eritrean islands.
During the numerous meetings between the two governments, Yemen took
condescending attitudes towards Eritrean concerns. PIA initiated
military action thus choosing to escalate the confrontation.
Fortunately, both parties agreed to international arbitration. There
is a nagging question whether the Eritrean government pursued wide
consultations with various experts [legal, diplomatic, economic,
social, psychologists, etc…] before rushing into military
confrontation? Eritreans didn’t aggressively question the Eritrean
government’s actions because the issue was settled quickly, and
second, we made the excuse for the government that it was still on the
learning curve of governing.
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In 1998,
the conflict with Ethiopia broke out after the Ethiopian government
killed 7 Eritrean military officers in disputed [but Eritrean]
territory. In less than a week – ‘in a ten minute decision’,
PIA took unilateral action without any wide consultation. PIA
failed to pursue wide consultation to ascertain the domestic and
international ramifications – economically, socially, diplomatically,
and politically. Because of this failure, Eritrea was condemned as
the guilty one or as the aggressor for starting the conflict with
Ethiopia. PIA had to retreat into his shell making all kinds of
promises that Eritrea won’t fire the first shot or that it would not
cross into Ethiopian territory during heated battles, in order to win
back the international community. Because of PIA’s failure to pursue
wide consultation before launching a ‘limited’ show of force in Badme,
Eritrea was handcuffed in the conflict with Ethiopia resulting in
Ethiopia overrunning a significant portion of its territory.
During the two year conflict with Ethiopia, PIA made many ‘ten minute’
decisions that eventually put Eritrea at a disadvantage. Gen.
Ephrem lamented on this political handcuff on EriTV. Did we learn our
lesson? Absolutely not, because it is deadly habits that prevents one
from learning from past mistakes.
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The latest
row with the UN is yet another example of hurried (or ‘ten minute’)
decision that failed to pursue wide consultation before engaging
in such dangerous and desperate politics. BEFORE EXPELLING certain
members of UNMEE, PIA should have sought consultation with experts.
But again, PIA probably considers himself the ultimate wisdom on legal
(including international), medical, agricultural, engineering, and
every other possible discipline known to man, that he may have figured
that consultation is waste of time. With one quick miscalculation,
or political misjudgment, PIA has tightened the noose around him to a
point of suffocating himself. Deadly habits!
Accept Border Demarcation Will take time!
For clarity, the UN and the guarantors have failed Eritrea by not
resolving the border issue. But this shouldn’t come as a surprise to
Eritreans. In fact, when Min. Haile Drue spoke in August 2000, he
understood that the border demarcation process would be dragged out but
that we should concentrate on running a nation as UNMEE would be
deployed in the disputed area. The coward PFDJ Central Committee and
rubber stamping National Assembly, passed resolutions fixing the time
for election for end of 2001 although the border decision was not
completed because everybody knew that a country can’t be paralyzed over
the border issue. The G-15, journalists, and many other brave Eritreans
understood that the border demarcation process would take time and that
a nation can’t live in state-of-suspended-animation during this period.
NO SURPRISE HERE! Many Eritreans understood that the guarantors and the
UN would drag their feet in finalizing the demarcation process. No one
ever expected Ethiopia would willing concede disputed territories to
Eritrea, especially, when [PIA] regime’s survival is staked on its
finalization.
There is no question that Eritrea is being governed by lame duck
President, who has run out of political maneuvering room. He has
resorted to every brutal act to quell domestic reform movement. He has
played out every international political card for a losing cause. His
latest interview may as well have been his farewell speech.
PIA’s desperate political situation requires him to go-for-broke.
The UN resolution 1640/2005 puts Eritrea on unequal footing with
Ethiopia, which has refused to implement the border decision handed down
in April 2002. UN Security Council resolutions are hardly passed
without first consulting the concerned nations. UNSC resolution is
used as last resort when the resolution concerns future actions [such as
threat of future sanction], as opposed to condemning past actions.
PIA and his higdefawiyan accomplices close to the UN, ignored all
warnings given to them on pending resolutions and thus precipitating a
tragic confrontation for the nation and the people of Eritrea against an
international body – and by implication picking a fight with powerful
countries. The Eritrean government’s surprise at this resolution
[1640/2005] is pretentious. The Eritrean government must have known
about this resolution in advance, probably not the exact wording of the
resolution but at least the thrust of the resolution was known to PIA.
But why would PIA risk such dangerous confrontation?
It is now obvious that PIA had staked his political future on the
outcome of the Ethiopian elections. When that gamble failed, PIA feels
that the border demarcation will not be finalized for years to come.
PIA can’t antagonize the US without severe repercussion, and instead PIA
has chosen to antagonize the UN. But unfortunately, the UN doesn’t have
the capacity to enforce international legal decisions. But again, at a
time when there is one superpower, lashing out at the UN is a proxy
fight with the world’s sole superpower – which is a suicidal wish.
Those who live in the bosom of the superpower may cheer on PIA while
they are living comfortable life, but the Eritrean people in Eritrea and
in refugee camps in neighboring countries are the ones paying the price
for this folly.
The main purpose of escalating the confrontation with the UN is
primarily aimed at gaining some sympathy with Eritreans. The UN and the
world is against us! We must circle the wagon at a time of external
threat. But unfortunately, this won’t work. PIA can’t buy any more
time with this tired politics.
Under Resolution 1640/2005, what kind of sanction could be imposed on
Eritrea if it fails to abide by the resolution? UNSC can impose
economic, diplomatic, and/or military sanctions.
1.
The UN will not impose economic sanctions because the nature of
Eritrean ‘violation’ isn’t severe enough to impose economic sanctions.
It would be like giving death sentence for shoplifting.
2.
If economic sanction is imposed, the UNSC will no longer have any
bargaining chip in negotiating with the regime. Unless violations are
severe, which it isn’t in this case, sanctions will be imposed in
phases.
3.
Eritrea doesn’t have any meaningful export. Economic sanction
against Eritrea will only adversely affect the suffering people of
Eritrea.
4.
Similarly, the UN doesn’t have much leverage in applying
diplomatic sanction because PIA is already banned from traveling to
most, if not all, Western countries.
5.
The only sanction that may be imposed is military sanction. But
this isn’t effective at all either. During the height of the conflict
between Ethiopia and Eritrea, the UN had imposed arms embargo on both
countries but there were many arms dealers willing to sell under the
table that the embargo was largely symbolic.
If the sanction is to be imposed, it will be on the sale of specific
types of armaments, and won’t even be a blanket embargo on all forms of
armaments. But symbolically, the sanction will serve to warn both
countries that the UNSC considers the tense border situation serious
enough that escalating it to a conflict will entail severe consequences.
Imposing even a symbolic sanction against Eritrean will put yet another
nail in the regime’s coffin. But PIA had a choice to avoid this
confrontation, but chose to pursue high stakes gamble because he knows
that there are no other scenarios that will save him. It is a
gambler’s mentality that must bet bigger and bigger amounts in the hope
of recovering all his past losses, but in the end tragically loses his
house and all his other worldly possessions. The outcome is
predictable.
In 1998, when PIA ordered his military men to capture Badme and
environs, PIA is said to have not expected that Woyane would react in
such vigorous way. PIA thought that showing a little force would help
the border negotiation move to the next level. This shows that PIA is
living in his own world, believing that political factors move according
to his own predictions. Wrong! War broke out and hence precipitating a
tragedy.
In 2005, when PIA banned the UNMEE from flying in Eritrea and
moving on land at certain times, PIA may have figured that political
factors would move according to his calculations or predictions. They
didn’t! Instead, PIA has put himself in quagmire that he is unable to
retreat without losing all his credibility … and his grip on power.
In both cases, he is victim of his own deadly habits - typical of
unaccountable leaders.
Dangerous Precedence
Instead of analyzing his latest predicament after the UNSC Resolution
1640/2005, PIA reacted by ordering the expulsion of certain
nationalities belonging to UNMEE – in contravention of Article 100.
That article asks all Member States “to respect the exclusively
international character of the responsibilities of the Secretary-General
and the staff.”
As has already been stated by the UN, it can’t accede to such order
because it creates dangerous precedence. If the UN accedes to the
Eritrean request, other members of the UN which have UN personnel
deployed in their countries will begin to make similar requests. That
would undermine the UN.
It is to be recalled that the US State Department is biting its teeth
over the imprisoning of four of its local staff at the US Embassy in
Eritrea. Political analysts have expressed the US State Department’s
concerns that such actions [imprisonments] by the Eritrean government
presents a dangerous precedence for the US missions abroad. Considering
the severity of this violation, the US government has not vigorously
demanded the Eritrean government to release or to bring to justice these
four employees.
But with the latest PFDJ escapade, the US government and the UN must now
contend with a nation flagrantly violating Article 100 of the United
Nations. Without a doubt, the US, UN, and EU have just reached a point
where tolerating such a regime to flagrantly ignore international norms
entails dangerous precedence – and thus finally aligning themselves with
the people of Eritrea. Ethiopia is the one violating international
laws. But Eritrea must learn to play the rules-of-the-game to advance
its long term interest. Even if Eritrea is to challenge the world
community over legitimate Eritrean concerns, it must know which buttons
to press, or which laws, rules, and resolutions it can circumvent and
stretch, while avoiding certain acts or orders which result in
overstepping into legal complications that will result in serious
repercussions. Only people like Min. Haile Drue play that necessary
game for Eritrea’s long-term interest.
Regime’s expiration is very near
The end of this brutal regime is near. There is no realistic scenario
that will save it. PIA gambled his political fortune on the outcome of
the border demarcation. His tired philosophy that ‘one thousand
mistakes can be redressed with one final victory’ has failed to
materialize. He has used up every brutal method he can muster to
silence any opposition – or rather silence the voices of common sense
and reason. The people of Eritrea removed the crown from their
leader’s head long time ago. The end is near. When it fought the
Ethiopians, the Eritrean people and the guarantors saved it from
annihilation. In picking a fight with its own people and the world, PIA
has no one to save him.
The New and Prosperous Eritrea will be built by younger generation of
Eritreans on the ashes of our tragedy.
On other issues
A couple of days ago, an interview with an Eritrean journalist was
posted on a couple of the Eritrean websites. Talk about ‘much ado about
nothing’!
Note this isn’t direct translation and is paraphrased to
highlight the various messages. In today’s Eritrea, no one can speak
their minds or express dissent without quickly landing oneself in PFDJ
dungeons. All interviews of ordinary Eritreans have elements of
coercion in them. The interviewee didn’t have any other choice but to
reply as he did.
·
How was your experience with private media in Eritrea?
o
… when we didn’t publish enough articles pertaining to
changing realities in Eritrea, many perceived us as ‘PFDJ’ agents. In
addition, because other newspapers were getting popular with the public,
we chose to cater to public’s wish. [ one could probably interpret
this to mean that the reformers were open with us, while PFDJ refused to
feed us information.]
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Were you arrested for trying to flee to Sudan, and not
because of you were a journalist?
o
… that is right … [what about the dozens of other
journalists?]
·
Was Dawit Isaac arrested for receiving external assistance
from Sweden?
o
… I know nothing about this…
·
Don’t you feel added responsibility because you went to
Revolutionary School? How could you work against this country when your
comrades and elders when they sacrificed themselves for this country?
o
… I didn’t do anything bad against my country. In fact, I
believe I did good for this country.
·
Don’t you know that receiving external assistance is
against the Press law?
o
… That is why we didn’t take the money.
We are then told that this journalist fled the country, the second time
successfully, and is now living in Sweden. It should not escape
anyone of us that this journalist spoke to the interviewer out of fear
rather than out of conviction. And still, the interviewee told
us that the government has no case against him or his colleagues.
The interview raises more questions than it answers. These types of
exposés indicate more the mind-set of those who conduct the interviews
and those who publish it than the interviewee himself.
“Sesinu”
EMDHR, Ms. Elsa Chyrum, and many of the other Eritrean civic societies
are doing an excellent job. The future of Eritrea is safe in their
hands.
http://emdhr.civiblog.org/blog/_archives/2005/12/9/1442910.html
For Higdefawiyans who are planning to
settle in the West
09 December 2005
Justice Department Bars Human
Rights Violators from United States
State Department official calls visa process critical tool for keeping
abusers out
http://usinfo.state.gov/xarchives/display.html?p=washfile-english&y=2005&m=December&x=20051208165814bcreklaw0.1646387&t=dhr/hr-latest.html
Remembering Aster Yohannes and all other mothers, sisters, and
innocent people in PFDJ’s cruel Dungeon,
It is darkest before dawn,
True Freedom is fast approaching,
We shall overcome!
For those of lucky enough,
Best Wishes over the holidays!
Kem Wetru Awet N’Hafash!
Berhan Hagos
December 10, 2005
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